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Nigeria, the African country called sick by even a presidential candidate, appears destined to remain that way, at least for now. This week’s contested election of Bola Ahmed Tinubu as president – with less than a third of the total vote in the continent’s most populous country – presages little fundamental change from the underwhelming, sclerotic presidency … Continue reading
Robert’s Conflict Mitigation Newsletter Dashboard 100 83 – How to Extinguish Democracy Robert I. Rotberg Aug 3 1 Neglect will do it. Citizen ennui could contribute. So would the tolerating of creeping authoritarianism — until it is too late. Tunisia, once a democratic result of the Arab Spring revolution, has now slid inexorably into … Continue reading
Robert I. Rotberg Hakainde Hichilema’s resounding victory in Zambia’s August presidential poll proves that Africans can abandon identity preferences, resist intimidation by an incumbent regime and oust a sitting autocrat accustomed to rigging elections.Voters in that one southern African country removed president Edgar Lungu, a despot who had increasingly brutalized opponents, curtailed free speech and … Continue reading
African democracy is again imperilled. This month’s military coup in Guinea, on the west coast of the continent, together with two recent coups in neighbouring Mali, a military usurpation of power in Chad, the shutting down of parliament in Tunisia, and the repeated failure to hold timely elections in Somalia all suggest that autocracy is … Continue reading
Foreign Affairs May 31, 2021 Nigeria is in big trouble. If a state’s first obligation to those it governs is to provide for their security and maintain a monopoly on the use of violence, then Nigeria has failed, even if some other aspects of the state still function. Criminals, separatists, and Islamist insurgents increasingly threaten … Continue reading
Disruptive forces are overrunning Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country and once a strong linchpin of the continent. But it has slipped from a position of palpable weakness to one of thoroughgoing failure just as many of its neighbours and near-neighbours are being simultaneously stormed by mercenary legions loyal to al-Qaeda in the Maghreb or to … Continue reading
Nigeria will face many complicated and divisive challenges in the next few decades. How President Jonathan and his successors address these challenges, and attempt to meet and overcome them, will determine the ultimate fate of Nigeria and Nigerians, and also of sub-Saharan Africa. Those challenges include an anticipated massive surge in population which, in … Continue reading
Africa and Asia: The Key Issues 